Abstract
MODELING OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE BALKANS
Xhuljeta Mecaj and Prof. Dr. Valentina Sinaj*
ABSTRACT
Economic growth and unemployment remain important problems of each country, regardless of their level of economic development. Although there is a wide literature on the link between economic growth and unemployment, there is no consensus on the direction and intensity of relationships, as these two factors have a different impact on the various economies. This study uses data on unemployment and economic growth in the Balkan region. Specifically, the countries included in the study are: Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Greece. The study period is 2008-2016 and annual data is provided by the World Bank to the respective countries. The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment was emphasized for the first timeby Okun (1962), so it will be seen whether Okun's law is verified in the case of our study. This study will shed light on the hypothesis of GDP linkage to unemployment for countries in the region (Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Greece) Through tests we will show that there is no co-integration between GDP and time lag unemployment. Also, the use of the tests will select the appropriate form between the fixed-effect model and the random effects model.
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