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FLOOD STUDIES IN CALABAR METROPOLIS: THE MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH
Antigha Richard E. E.*, Ayotamuno M. J., Obio E. A. and Bassey I. E.
The Markovian principle was applied to study the Calabar Metropolis catchment so as to determine the influence of some hydraulic and hydrologic parameters on the rainfall-runoff processes in the Catchment. The model framework relied significantly on literature from Wang & Maritz (1990) and Chartfield (2004). The factor analysis approach was employed to discretize the chosen variables. The rotated component matrix showed velocity, drainage area and the degree of imperviousness to give the highest loading of 0.72, 0.95 and 0.82 to components 1,2 and 3 respectively. There was a very strong correlation between the cross sectional area of drain and discharge (r = 0.93, p<0.05) as well as the basin area (r = 0.76, p<0.05). Incorrect sizing and spread of drains as well as the existing slopes employed in the generation of the drains’ invert during construction have been seen as some of the key factors that foster flooding in the Metropolis. Misalignment of the drains with the existing outlet does not help the expected discharge of storm runoff to receiving bodies. Sequel to these, revisiting the Calabar Master Plan of 1972 with the original design for six drainage outlets is recommended.[Full Text Article]