Abstract
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARIMA MODEL FOR ELECTRICAL LOAD DEMAND OF TAKIE 11KV DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
Ganiyu Adedayo Ajenikoko* and Daramola Emmanuel Oluwafemi
ABSTRACT
Electrical load demand is very important in the economic development of any locality. The Takie 11kV distribution system has been facing severe imbalance between electrical load demand and electrical load supply thereby causing electrical load demand crisis and this has pulled back the economic growth of the town. In this research paper, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to formulate a prediction model for the load demand pattern in the distribution system to give opportunity to have a hint about the future load demand and planning in the distribution system. This paper aims at an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the monthly peak load demand patterns in the distribution system. The monthly peak load demand data from January2012 to December 2016 was collected from the load dispatch unit of the power sector for analysis. The ARIMA (0,1,1) model determined in this work revealed that the load demand is rapidly increasing with time and this indicated that the main behavior of the distribution system has been captured thereby helping the power sector in decision making process which will form the basis for planning and development in the distribution system. The accuracy testing was carried out using mean error (ME) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square Error (RMSE).
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