Abstract
FROM CLIMATE RISK ANALYSIS TO AN ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY SYSTEM IN THE BAMENDA HIGHLANDS OF CAMEROON
*Ndoh Mbue Innocent, Balgah Azibo Roland and Kah Elvis Fang
ABSTRACT
This cross sectional study aims to analyse climate change risks in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon, and propose an environmental safety system for the region. A twenty-five year climatic data (rainfall, temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, sunshine hours), and crop yield statistic over the same period (1991 to date) were collected. Fieldvisits and focus group interviews with some 140 farmers purposely selected complemented the database. Multiple regression analysis was used to test if the climatic variables significantly predicted change in agrobiodiversity. On average, the mean annual temperature of the region increased by 0.040C per year. Human health impacts of this temperature rise included heat cramps (11.2%), heat exhaustion (68.3%) and death (20.5%). Other impacts range from increasing droughts to shifting agricultural calendars in unpredictable ways. Because of droughts and floods (1) streams that once served as sources of potable water are now filled with mud/silt, and some have either completely dried up or become seasonal and not suitable for drinking anymore. This has forced many people to either drink polluted water or move through long distances in search of potable water especially during the dry season; (2) aquatic habitats and biodiversity are being destroyed. The African lungfishes, Protopterus annectens, for example, that was once a common catch and cheap source of protein for households are now rare to near extinction, especially in urban and peri-urban areas; (3) yields of a number of subsistence crops such as Colocascia spp., Colocasia esculenta, Zea mays, and cash crops such as tea (Camellia sinensis) are on the decline. The two predictors, temperature and precipitation explained 43% of the variance in yield (R2=.43, F (2, 140) =5.56, p<.01). It was found that rainfall significantly predicted crop yield (β = .56, p<.01), as did temperature (β = -.36, p<.01). Declining yields have led to high prices of food items in the market, undermining food security. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change risks, the model of complex environmental safety system is proposed. This model could be instrumental to the development of heat and drought-resistant high-yielding crop varieties.
[Full Text Article] [Download Certificate]