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S-I-S COMPARTMENTAL MODELING AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF EBOLA OUTBREAK IN CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA.
Kamalu C. I. O., Dozie N.S., Oghome P., Nwakaudu M.S., Uzondu F.N.,
In this work, Ebola epidemic outbreak cases and deaths were modeled using compartmental model of epidemic mathematics and kinetics. Data were obtained from credible internet sources like Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) which were used to validate our model, and the results show that it was almost a perfect model for some countries of West Africa but just good enough for Central Africa as the R2 shows. The goodness of fit terms of coefficient of correlation (R2) of the developed model on test data gives excellent validation. For Guinea, R2 is 0.9997 for both cases and deaths test data. For Liberia, R2 is 0.9977 for both cases and deaths test data. For Sierra Leone, R2 is 0.9997 (for cases) and 0.9995 (for deaths data). For Nigeria, R2 is 0.9914 (for cases data) and 0.9979 (for deaths data). For Central Africa, R2 is 0.9343 (for cases data) and 0.9304 (for deaths data). The response plot of the cumulative cases and deaths as well as the monthly cases and deaths between the three worst-hit countries, namely (Liberia, Guinea. Sierra Leone) show very serious interaction since the EVD is spread by bats, gorillas, herbivorous animals that live in the bush and thick forest. We should reduce the rate of contact with the animals and stop eating them especially their carcasses found in the bushes and thickets. These findings can be used in studying future ebola epidemic and pandemic outbreaks by World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (Pan-AHO), Centers for Disease Control (CDC), etc.[Full Text Article]