Abstract
FORECASTING GENERAL AND VOCATIONAL SECONDARY STUDENTS AND SCHOOLS IN EGYPT BY USING ARIMA
Eman Ahmed Aly Ismail*
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to provide short term projection of general and vocational students and schools in Egypt by using ARIMA models. This study uses data during the period of 1987 to 2017 to forecast the period of 2018 to 2022. The study found ARIMA (1,1,0) suitable for general students and schools time series. While ARIMA (1,2,0) is suitable for vocational students and schools time series. The forecasting results revealed that during the next five years, the average change rate would be the same for the number of the students and schools in general secondary education. Where the real problem is that the average change rate in the number of vocational students is exceeding the one in the vocational schools. Which means that vocational education is deteriorating both in quality and quantity. Egypt needs to increase the number of vocational schools immediately in order to solve this problem.
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